The Bank of England's nine interest rate-setters have voted unanimously to keep borrowing costs on hold at 3.75 per cent in the face of inflation risks from the war in the Middle East, and some raised the prospect of having to increase rates.
Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected a 7-2 vote in favour of a "hold" decision.
The Monetary Policy Committee said inflation could rise to as high as 3.5 per cent over the next two calendar quarters, according to BoE staff forecasts, and that it was alert to the risk of higher inflation expectations becoming embedded in the economy.
It also nodded to the risks of an economic slowdown which could weaken inflation pressures but said the bigger risk was one of higher inflation.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said petrol prices were already higher and household energy bills would go up later this year if the conflict lasts.
"We have held interest rates at 3.75 per cent as we assess how events unfold," Bailey said in a statement.
"Whatever happens, our job is make sure inflation gets back to its 2.0 per cent target."
Sterling briefly jumped against the US dollar and the euro immediately after the decision was announced and investors were betting on two quarter-point rate hikes by the BoE this year.
The yields on two-year United Kingdom government bonds - which are sensitive to speculation about rates - hit 4.43 per cent, the highest since January 2025 and up by a massive 33 basis points on the day, extending an earlier surge triggered by news of more damage to gas infrastructure in Qatar.
"What is striking is that all policymakers voted to keep policy on hold, which shows that even the more dovish members of the committee want to see how this conflict plays out before cutting again," said Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist of investment company Aberdeen.
"While the hurdle to a return to rate hikes is very high, the economy could be facing a long wait until the next cut."
Other MPC members were more explicit about whether interest rates might need to go up, a possibility that has been priced in by investors following the start of the war.
Catherine Mann said she thought the BoE should consider a longer pause in rates "or even a hike at some point" to stop inflation from getting stuck too high.
BoE chief economist Huw Pill, who voted against the BoE's most recent rate cuts, said he was "ready to act" if the energy price shock raised the risk of longer-term inflation pressures.
But Alan Taylor, who has been one of the most vocal supporters of rate cuts, said the BoE's decision to hold rates should not be seen as a turning point.
"Given massive uncertainty around energy prices, I currently see a high bar to hiking," Taylor said.
The MPC said it might have more information by the time of its next meeting in late April to better assess the situation.
The BoE has cut borrowing costs more slowly than the European Central Bank since 2024 because of its worries about the UK's stubbornly stronger price pressures.
Just when it looked like UK inflation was going to drop to the BoE's target of 2.0 per cent and stay there, the jump in oil and gas prices threatens to push it back up - possibly to 4-5 per cent, according to analyst forecasts based on the latest energy prices.
That would still be far below the peak of 11.1 per cent in 2022 after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine which caused a much bigger spike in energy prices.