Overseas rates decision to dominate domestic chatter

ASX indicator boards (file image)
Australian investors will be closely eyeing the US Federal Reserve's moves on interest rates. -AAP Image

When the United States speaks, Australian investors listen.

And they will be doing so very closely as the much-anticipated US rates decision is handed down on Thursday.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has previously indicated there will be no changes to the cash rate in May, while the bank waits for more information on the effects of recent tariffs.

But what investors are mainly interested in is what comes afterwards, independent economist Craig James says.

"(The decision) shouldn't have any great impact, providing the Federal Reserve chair indicates that there is still the continued leaning towards interest rate cuts," he told AAP.

"If it is the case that he winds back the guidance on rate cuts, that could see a degree of disappointment in US markets, and that would have implications for Australian investors as well."

Commonwealth Bank economists are forecasting the US bank to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point in each of the next four decision cycles.

But Mr James said the Federal Reserve could take a more cautious attitude, given the impact of the tariffs increasing prices amid a slowing economy which contracted 0.3 per cent in the March quarter.

"That's something that investors certainly don't like because the question is how does policy react to a stagflation situation?" the economist said.

"Do you increase interest rates to fight inflation, or do you decrease interest rates because the economy is flat or contracting?"

The Bank of England will also hand down its decision on Friday but Australian investors and markets will pay less attention than the "main game" in the US.

Back home, the Reserve Bank will announce its rates decision on May 20, with the door "wide open" for another rate cut, given inflation is under control - rising by 0.7 per cent in the March quarter.

"But in this volatile environment, they're going to be fairly careful in terms of what they indicate about future movements," Mr James said.

Monthly household spending data will also be released on Tuesday and the economist said investors would keenly watch as the key measure would soon replace retail trade data as the Reserve Bank's indicator on consumer spending.

"Unless it's significantly away from zero, if it shows a modest rise or modest loss, that will be taken well by investors," he said.

The federal election result could also be a point of market interest, with anything but a majority government on either side a "worst case", Mr James said.

"Markets love certainty. Investors love certainty," he said.

"Hung parliaments would be the worst of all worlds because there could be many independents to lobby in terms of getting votes through."

Meanwhile, investors on Wall Street have taken comfort from strong economic data and the potential easing of trade tensions between the US and China, with stocks notching a second straight week of gains.

The US economy added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 per cent.

As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 564.47 points, or 1.39 per cent, on Friday to 41,317.43, the S&P 500 gained 82.54 points, or 1.47 per cent, to 5,686.68 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 266.99 points, or 1.51 per cent, to 17,977.73.

Australian share futures jumped 32 points, or 0.38 per cent, to 11,481.

The S&P/ASX200 rose 92.4 points, or 1.13 per cent, to 8,238, as the broader All Ordinaries gained 90.5 points, or 1.08 per cent, to 8,456.2.