New Zealand is on track to record its worst deficit this decade, and go the whole 2020s without posting a budget in the black.
A fresh fiscal outlook from the half-year economic and fiscal update, delivered by Finance Minister Nicola Willis in Wellington on Tuesday, was another dire reminder of the country's finances.
The headline number was a deficit of $NZ16.9 billion ($A14.7 billion) this financial year, $NZ1.3 billion worse than forecast in May's budget.
Using the government's preferred "OBEGALx" figures - which strips out the Accident Compensation Corporation - the deficit is predicted to hit $NZ13.9 billion, which is three per cent of GDP.
New Zealand last posted a surplus in 2019, under Jacinda Ardern's government in the last pre-COVID budget, before fiscal stimulus put the books into the red.
On the new figures, a next surplus will come in 2029/30 rather than the year earlier.
Ms Willis said she "wouldn't get too wound up about small changes" and would still target a return to surplus in 2029.
"We are sticking to our strategy," she told journalists.
The government's fiscal strategy has been a major debate in recent weeks, with right-wing coalition partners ACT and former finance minister Ruth Richardson urging Ms Willis to take a bigger scalpel to public spending.
Ms Richardson, now chair of waste watch group the Taxpayers Union, even challenged Ms Willis to a much-hyped debate, which is yet to eventuate.
"When Nicola Willis took up the reins as finance minister in December 2023, a surplus was only three and a half years away ... now it'll take six and a half years instead, with the surplus slipping further back to 2030," Taxpayers Union spokesman James Ross said."We seem to be walking backwards. Every time Treasury opens the books, balancing them seems like more of a pipe dream."
Ms Willis argued New Zealand was poised to hit surplus faster than Australia, the UK and Canada.
Revenue has been hit by a worsening economy, which contracted by 0.9 per cent in the June quarter of this year, but looks set to bounce back to growth when Q3 figures are released on Thursday.
That will be good news for Prime Minister Chris Luxon, who said at the start of the year, his 2025 priority was "growth, growth, growth".
Opposition finance spokeswoman Barbara Edmonds said the poor economic performance had led to worsening unemployment and surge of outward migration, much to Australia.
"It's no wonder 200 Kiwis are leaving every day for better opportunities overseas," she said.
"Nicola Willis has made things worse ... she said frontline services wouldn't be cut, but they have. National has had to borrow even more just to keep the lights on."