Australian households and small businesses in eastern seaboard states are on track for power bill relief thanks to lower wholesale prices, and despite the war in the Middle East.
Customers could pay as much as 10 per cent less on electricity this financial year compared to the 12 months prior under the Australian Energy Regulator's draft determination.
More wind and battery generation has helped contribute to lower wholesale energy prices, the regulator says, which make up roughly 40 per cent of household bills.
Lower retail operating costs and a more efficient price framework have also been highlighted by AER chair Clare Savage.
"This draft decision points to the potential for some welcome relief for households and small businesses after several years of rising energy costs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine," she said.
Households should be spared the same power price pain from the Middle East war as felt after Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed up coal and gas prices, making power stations more expensive to run.
Prices for pre-ordered contracted electricity has been rising since hostilities began but were still tracking lower than the previous year, and well below the 2022 events.
But the regulator is monitoring global fuel prices and is prepared to update default market offers accordingly before they are finalised in May.
Default market offers are updated annually to reflect the cost of delivering electricity to businesses and households.
Benchmark prices differ by region, but residential electricity customers from NSW, South Australia and southeast Queensland can anticipate price falls between 1.3 per cent and 10.1 per cent compared with the previous financial year.
The average household in NSW could pay $58-$226 less than the year before, and bills could be roughly $216 lower in southeast Queensland.
A more modest $31 fall can be expected in South Australia.
Small businesses are in line for price drops between 7.6 per cent and 21.2 per cent, depending on area.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the energy transition was putting downward pressure on bills.
"It's no coincidence that this comes at the same time as we've hit 51 per cent renewable energy in the grid" he told reporters on Thursday.
Only the 10 per cent of households and 18 per cent of small businesses that fail to shop around end up on standard offers from their retailers and customers are urged to find better deals.
Victorian benchmark prices were proposed by a separate state-based regulator last week that flagged a three per cent average fall in annual bills across the five zones.