Like the famous media release from the GOAT himself (Michael Jordan) in 1995: I’m back.
It is time to dust off the form guide and crack open the piggy bank because we’re here to forget about those interest rate rises.
The May Racing Carnival down in Warrnambool is a special time for this south-west boy and so it was time to revive this column for our loyal readers.
Our assignment first-up from a spell is Saturday’s nine-race meeting at Caulfield.
Expect there to be a bit of rain now until the jump of race one, with predictions that they will be running on a soft track.
The rail will be out nine metres so there could be a slight advantage to those on the speed.
As always, if you are following this mug punter along for the ride, please remember to gamble responsibly.
Race 1. 12.05pm — Super Vobis 2-Y-O Hcp (1200m)
A bunch of lightly-raced two-year-old runners greets us in the first. Looks like Volander (7) will power to the front from gate three. The filly placed first-up at this track/distance and expect another bold showing, especially now 2kg lighter. We think it’s a battle between her and Liberty Steps (1). The Lindsay Park colt placed on debut and then won last start at this track/distance. Jamarra ran second that day behind Liberty Steps and has since gone on to win during the week at the ‘Bool. Merchant Prince (2), and the two debutant runners are worth watching.
Top tip: Liberty Steps
Race 2. 12.40pm — BM78 (1600m)
We are looking for value in the second. Brazen Song (3) has waited a long time for a win but we are banking on the mare to salute here. Is drawn to find the front. Handles the soft ground well and always runs well in the wet. Only knock is no wins at this track. Mimi’s Award (2) is another that we like at juicy odds. The mare comes to hand very quickly and has a 3:1-2-0 record when second up. The 3kg weight claim will help. Has a 2:1-1-0 record over this distance and handles wet ground. If the leader wins the first race, bank on Brazen Song each-way.
Top tip: Mimi’s Award (EW)
Race 3. 1.15pm — BM78 (1100m)
A tricky race to navigate in the third. There looks to be a genuine smorgasbord of front runners so expect them to set a quick tempo. We’ve settled on Dance To Dubai (14) to salute. No wins yet at this track but the mare absolutely pings when fresh. Has a 4:1-2-1 record when first-up and has four placings from six attempts at this trip. No wins on wet ground but has placed twice. Little Stevie (3) looks ready to win. Just missed at long odds to a smart type at last start.
Top tip: Dance to Dubai
Race 4. 1.50pm — BM78 (1200m)
There is plenty of value here if you can land it. Galenus (4) jumps from barrier eight and should land sweetly in the field. The Tasmania runner has been racing superbly and just missed last start when favourite on a Soft 7. Has five wins from eight attempts over this trip and a 3kg claim is beneficial. Could jump as favourite. For those hunting value, Can’t Be Done (7) loves a wet track and has two seconds over this track/distance. Turbeau (10) holds a special place in our heart after it won the Tatura Cup last year. Yet to win first up but does have a 4:0-1-3 record so expect a big effort with a 2kg claim.
Top tip: Galenus
Race 5. 2.25pm — BM100 (1100m)
A touch easier to land on one to back in race five. We’ve narrowed it down to It’sourtime (3) and Starry Legend (11). The former was beaten by a class type last start in Extreme Warrior. The Danny O’Brien-trained runner flew home with the second-fastest final furlong of the day. Has a 2:1-1-0 record when second up and one win from one attempt on wet ground. Is yet to miss the placings over this trip. Starry Legend gets in really light in the weights and smoked them last start over 1000m. Won by two lengths and could have won by more.
Top tip: It’sourtime
Race 6. 3.00pm — Super Vobis 3-Y-O (1200m)
Alright, by this stage of the day we could be well and truly in the red-zone or halfway to an early retirement. Here’s hoping it’s the latter. We have kept it simple and landed on the favourite as our best of the day. Clemenceau (2) is the one we have landed on. Has won four on the trot and won in style last start when fresh. Only query is how wet the track gets but is the one to beat.
Top tip: Clemenceau
Race 7. 3.40pm - Hcp (1600m)
The early speed will come from last-start race winner Imperial Lad (3), while 4 and 12 should push forward out wide. Imperial Lad loves running in the wet and these conditions suit. The win over the mile last start gives the Lad a 6:1-3-1 record over this trip. Uncle Bryn (8) is the short-odds favourite and rightly so. Won by more than four lengths last start over 1700m with 60kg. Drops down to 53kg! Mankayan (5) could surprise. Likes racing over further but when first-up last prep, the gelding finished second at this track with 55kg. Drops down to 53.5kg here and jumps from barrier one. Has a 4:1-1-1 record when fresh and three wins on wet ground. We can’t forget So Si Bon (1), one of our all-time favourites. Wins are now quite rare for the Bon, but with 75 race starts, the gelding knows how to get the job done. Ran second when fresh with a big weight over this track/distance. If there’s plenty of rain back him in.
Top tip: Uncle Bryn (W) or Mankayan (EW)
Race 8. 4.20pm — Super Vobis 3-Y-O Hcp (2000m)
A tough race. Clairemont (8) is an exciting prospect. Won two-back and then placed last start over the mile but looked to want further. Gets the extra 400m here and should excel. Drops down to 54kg which is another big tick. Blushing Tycoon (2) should get a soft run from the inside barrier. Did a good job last start without any luck. Gets the blinkers on and could be a danger. I really liked the look of Yaphet (6) at Sale. The young gelding worked hard to the line over the mile and got up. Beat home a good sort.
Top tip: Clairemont
Race 9. 4.53pm — BM100 Hcp (2000m)
A tricky race to end on. Might need a few in the final leg of the quaddie. Expect No Effort (6) to run forward and set the speed from out wide. That should allow Milford (5) to find a nice spot from barrier three. Milford should be able to back up its win in the Easter Cup which came at this track/distance. Don’t Doubt Dory (10) is another that should find a good spot in the run. Finished third last start over 1700m behind Flash Aah (9), who is another to watch closely. Won in style two-back and then placed last start. Has drawn the inside rail.
Top tip: Flash Aah
Best of the Day
Where: Caulfield
When: Tomorrow
Race 6: Clemenceau (2)