The VFF fears water buybacks will further exacerbate future water shortages for permanent horticulture in the Murray-Darling Basin following the release of new data on water demand and availability.
The report for the Victorian Government, Water supply and demand in the southern Murray-Darling Basin Update by water market experts Aither, provides an assessment of water availability and demand for permanent horticulture across northern Victoria, southern NSW and South Australia under wet to extreme dry scenarios.
It builds on analysis released in 2019 and 2020, and VFF Water Council chair Andrew Leahy said the updated information highlighted the crippling impact water buybacks would have on food security.
“Demand for water by permanent horticultural plantings is only set to increase. This will drive up prices and increase shortfall risks,” Mr Leahy said.
“We know droughts drive up water prices, but with a Commonwealth Government wanting to shrink the total amount of water available to agriculture through buybacks, it means the impact on food production will be even greater.”
The Federal Government is currently seeking 49 gigalitres of water in NSW and Queensland catchments, including 10 Gl from the NSW Murray system.
The report estimates current water demand for existing permanent horticulture in the connected Murray at 1128 Gl a year.
Based on age profiles of plantings currently in the ground, the report estimates demand will increase by 146 Gl to 1274 Gl a year as the plantings reach maturity.
It said that under extreme dry conditions (and excluding carryover) “there would not be enough water available in the connected Murray to support all existing permanent horticulture, even if no water was used for other irrigation purposes”.
“The 2007-08 drought saw just 993 Gl of water available to all users in the entire basin,” Mr Leahy said.
“This report reinforces what previous reports have shown — in the next drought, horticulturalists won’t have enough water to keep all their trees alive.”
Mr Leahy encouraged irrigators to watch Aither’s webinar on Wednesday, March 29 from noon to 1pm to understand the report in more detail.
Further information is available on the Agriculture Victoria website.