January delivered some of the hottest conditions on record across Australia’s dairying regions, with below-average rainfall adding pressure to on-farm conditions.
Despite this, feed prices remained relatively steady.
A combination of strong fodder supply, solid grain availability and agistment helped cushion the impact on feed markets.
Temperature conditions were extreme by historical standards across the first month of the year.
Australia’s area-averaged mean temperature sat 1.9°C above the long-term average, making it the fourth-warmest January on record.
Both maximum and minimum temperatures were above average across most states and territories, with NSW recording its second-warmest January mean maximum temperature on record.
Rainfall added further pressure, with national January totals around 10 per cent below average and all states and territories except Queensland recording below-average rainfall.
Hot and dry conditions also contributed to bushfires in parts of Victoria, further challenging local farming conditions.
Despite these seasonal pressures, feed prices did not surge as sharply as might typically be expected.
Only one region recorded a notable month-on-month increase in cereal hay prices, with central South Australia up 14 per cent from December, while prices across most other regions remained relatively steady or declined.
Grain markets also showed limited volatility, with wheat and barley prices ranging between a six per cent fall and a five per cent increase month-on- month.
Strong hay availability was a key factor supporting price stability.
A flurry of late season baling across Victoria helped keep supply flowing, easing short-term demand pressure.
Fodder movements between regions also played a role, with central-west NSW experiencing a strong straw season supported by good regrowth and repeated windrowing.
This allowed fodder to move south to support livestock in heat-affected areas.
Grain availability further underpinned feed market stability.
The 2025-26 winter crop harvest is expected to finish as the second largest on record, keeping grain supplies ample.
At the same time, the Australian dollar strengthened above US70¢, reducing the competitiveness of Australian grain exports.
With export demand easing, more grain was likely redirected into domestic markets, improving local availability.
Agistment also helped relieve pressure on feed demand.
There were reports of producers in affected regions moving livestock to agistment in southern Victoria, where favourable late-spring conditions supported strong pasture growth.
The combination of available pasture and locally sourced fodder allowed these regions to absorb additional stock without placing significant pressure on feed markets.
Looking ahead, while feed markets have remained relatively steady through January, there may still be a need for supplementary feeding until autumn pasture growth resumes.
Seasonal conditions and rainfall over the coming months will be key in determining whether feed prices remain stable or begin to face renewed upward pressure.