Surprise employment jump ahead of RBA rate meeting

Unemployment figures
The unemployment rate held steady in April as traders pencil in a Reserve Bank rate cut. -AAP Image

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent in April, as widely expected, but the amount of jobs in the economy shot up.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded an 89,000 employment increase in April, smashing the 25,000 gain pencilled in by forecasters.

Employment growth was driven by more women entering the workforce, with the participation rate increasing to 67.1 per cent.

"The participation rate for 35-44 year olds had the largest annual growth, up 1.9 percentage points to 88.3 per cent," ABS head of labour statistics Sean Crick said on Thursday.

Female employment growth of 65,000 was dominated by gains in full-time workers, which rose 42,000.

The Reserve Bank will mull the unemployment figures and wages growth data released on Wednesday before a pivotal rates meeting next week.

The RBA's preferred measure of inflation - the trimmed mean - fell back into target at 2.9 per cent in April, but the central bank remains concerned tightness in the labour market could cause price rises to accelerate again.

The rates market has fully priced in a 25 basis point cut, while a majority of economists expect the board to drop rates for a second time this cycle, following its move lower in February.

Wages data released on Wednesday revealed a stronger-than-expected rise in the March quarter but this was driven by changes to industry awards and enterprise agreements.

Slowdown in growth in individual arrangements, which provided a more relevant indicator of how the business cycle was influencing wages costs, indicated the labour market was loosening, CBA senior economist Stephen Wu said.

Thursday's data confirmed the jobless rate remained below the central bank's prediction of 4.2 per cent for the June quarter.

The RBA will release updated economic forecasts in its Statement on Monetary Policy on Tuesday. 

Several economists have lifted their forecasts for peak unemployment since US President Donald Trump's tariff announcements sparked expectations of weaker economic growth.

AMP economists Diana Mousina and My Bui expect the unemployment rate to eventually climb to 4.5 per cent.

"(This) suggests that there will be some further downward pressure on wages growth, which we expect to slow towards three per cent over the next 12 months," they said.