Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has not ruled out hiking interest rates again if inflation keeps rising, after the bank left rates on hold for the first time in 2026.
Following three consecutive rate rises, the central bank's monetary policy board voted unanimously to leave the cash rate steady at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday.
The decision was anticipated by the majority of economists and financial markets.
But economists were split on whether it heralds the end of the bank's hiking cycle or is merely a pause before the next move upwards.
Amid the opposing challenges of a slowing economy and persistent inflation pressures, economists differed on how much weight to put on each impulse, Ms Bullock said.
Rate rise expectations had come down since lower-than-expected headline inflation and higher-than-expected unemployment figures were released after the previous rate meeting in May.
But these figures were volatile and underlying inflation was still pretty much in line with the bank's forecasts, she said.
"I can't rule out that if inflation doesn't respond in the way we expect it to do, then we might have to do more," she told reporters in Sydney.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said Ms Bullock's comments and the board's statement suggested that inflation was still the RBA's primary concern.
Underlying inflation continued to trend up, the recent award wage rise was stronger than expected and business surveys warned of ongoing cost and price pressures, posing a high risk that inflation expectations will move higher, he said.
"We are continuing to allow for a further rise in rates, with the next hike likely to come in August and another one pencilled in for November," Dr Oliver said.
Financial markets were pricing in about a one-in-two chance of one more rate rise in 2026 ahead of the meeting and were basically unmoved following the announcement.
Added to the list of considerations for the Reserve Bank was a federal budget which has thrown cold water on an already-cooling housing market, thanks to proposed curbs to property investor tax breaks.
Questions over a tentative Iran peace deal also remained.
While oil prices were easing in response, supply issues will take some time to resolve and it was uncertain whether the deal would hold, Ms Bullock said.
Until the deal is signed and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, it will remain a source of uncertainty, not reassurance, Deloitte Access Economics partner Stephen Smith said.
If the federal government's fuel excise cut expires at the end of June, as expected, that would add another layer of noise to inflation data, he said.
"A hold today gives (the RBA) more time to assess how earlier rate increases are flowing through households, businesses and the labour market, while keeping its options open for future meetings," Mr Smith said.
But HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham predicted an extended hold, before the RBA begins cutting rates in 2027.
Higher rates and the impact of the Iran war have likely already sent the economy into a downswing, he said.
Ms Bullock said the bank was not forecasting the economy to shrink in the June quarter.
"We are forecasting that growth is going to slow, but growth has to slow," she said.
"The key reason for that is that we have excess demand, and unless demand grows more slowly than the supply side of the economy for a time, we're not going to get inflation down."
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the hold on rates was a welcome reprieve for millions of Australians with a mortgage.
"It doesn't make life any easier for people, but it doesn't make life harder either," he told reporters in Brisbane.
Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson said it was disappointing for households doing it tough.
"Today, what they were looking for was relief, but because the government keeps stoking inflation, taxing inflation, and spending the inflation, and keeping the cycle going, interest rates have persisted," he told Sky News.