Following three years of herd growth leading to the largest cattle herd in 10 years in 2023, the Australian cattle herd is expected to ease by less than one per cent to 28.6 million head by June 30.
Meat & Livestock Australia’s latest Cattle Industry Projections also says female retention remains above long-term averages, particularly within northern production systems, illustrating that the herd has entered a maintenance phase as elevated turn-off has been driven by high supply rather than producer intention to destock.
MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell said female retention remaining above average is an element that is contributing to the northern Australian cattle herd staying in a growth phase.
“Following an above average wet season across much of the north of the country, the cattle herd is expected to grow further, especially as consistent rainfall events brought on by cyclones and low-pressure weather systems continue throughout the summer,” Mr Bignell said.
“For the southern herd, we expect it to constrict further into 2024 as it reaches maturity.
“This leads to increased turn-off while the cattle cycle enters a herd maintenance phase. This dynamic is influenced by the 2023 NSW female slaughter rate (FSR) averaging 48 per cent, above the long-term benchmark of 47 per cent.”
A focus on productivity and genetics from Australian cattle producers during the 2020-22 rebuild has resulted in a resilient breeding herd, the report found.
“This means that the herd reaction to higher turn-off rates will be less severe than in previous years,” Mr Bignell said.
“We expect solid numbers of young cattle in the coming seasons both through the northern and southern systems.”
MLA also projects a lift in the slaughter rate which will drive production close to record levels in 2025.
However, labour availability remains a concern for processors, especially as the number of processor-ready cattle increases.
Carcase weights will fall during these high production years, though will remain well above long-term averages, thanks to the investments in genetic profile, and consistent improvements to Australia’s feedlot sector.
The United States remains Australia’s key supply competitor, alongside Brazil, who export beef to key markets shared with Australia.
With the United States forecasting an easing to their drought condition across key cattle producing regions, a strong and extensive herd rebuild is expected to start during 2024.
The result is expected to be a contraction in the American supply, which will create an opportunity for Australian beef in global markets. Additionally, solid domestic supply will support strong demand for live cattle exports into major markets.
MLA said this year is looking to be a positive year for the cattle industry with the herd staying within a maintenance phase.
While forecasts remain crucial for business management, the expected relative climate stability in 2024 suggests that decision-making may not be as reactive to long-term forecasts as observed in the reactive markets of 2023.