The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences estimates winter crop production will fall by 32 per cent to 46.7 million tonnes in 2023-24.
The latest ABARES quarterly Australian Crop Report says despite falling from record highs achieved in 2022-23, this is slightly above the 10-year average to 2022-23 of 46.5 million tonnes.
Seasonal conditions across Australian winter cropping regions were mixed throughout the 2023-24 winter cropping season.
Favourable timing of rainfall events boosted production across major cropping regions in southern NSW, Victoria and parts of South Australia. By contrast, persistent dryness reduced yield potential in Queensland, northern NSW and Western Australia.
Harvesting of winter crops this season is now complete. The national winter crop harvest progressed earlier and at a much faster pace than in recent years.
The earlier start to harvest was driven by hot and dry finishing conditions in Queensland, northern NSW, SA and WA. Widespread rainfall events in November and early summer resulted in some harvest delays across major cropping regions in central and southern NSW, Victoria and parts of SA.
The quality profile of the national wheat crop was mixed with a higher proportion of wheat making high protein grades compared to the three previous La Niña years, particularly in WA and SA.
However, wheat in Victoria and parts of NSW was heavily weighted to the lower protein Australian Standard White grade, with some quality downgrades due to wet harvest conditions.
National winter crop production has been revised up slightly compared to the December 2023 Australian Crop Report. This reflects improved production in Victoria and NSW, which is estimated to more than offset reduced production in WA.
Wheat production is forecast to fall by 36 per cent to 26 million tonnes, two per cent below the 10-year average. This is an upwards revision from the December forecast.
Barley production is forecast to fall by 24 per cent to 10.8 million tonnes, four per cent below the 10-year average. This is consistent with the December forecast.
Canola production is forecast to fall by 31 per cent to 5.7 million tonnes but remain well above the 10- year average on account of area planted estimated to be the second highest on record. This is an upwards revision from the December forecast.
Victoria
Winter crop production in Victoria is estimated to reach 10.4 million tonnes in 2023-24, slightly below the record 11 million tonnes set in 2022-23.
Despite the decline year-on-year, this is an upward revision from the December 2023 Australian Crop Report and sits 38 per cent above the 10-year average to 2022-23.
This forecast incorporates higher-than-expected yields, reflecting favourable conditions during key growing periods across most cropping regions.
Despite below average rainfall during September, timely and adequate rainfall in October and November supported grain fill in cereal crops across the state.
A favourable start to the season enabled timely planting for winter crops, with area planted estimated to be 3.6 million hectares, six per cent above the 10-year average to 2022-23.
Winter crop yields are estimated to sit just below the record levels of 2022-23, given high stored soil moisture profiles, and crop establishment and growth supported by consistent winter rainfall.
Below average rainfall across the Mallee and Wimmera regions during September was expected to reduce crop prospects in these areas. However, average to above average rainfall during October and November was adequate to provide upside potential to grain and oilseed yields in those areas.
Harvest activity was prolonged in some central and southern regions of Victoria due to the heavy rainfall totals recorded in late November and early December.
This cool and wet finish also impacted the quality profile of wheat harvested in Victoria, with a high proportion making the Australian Standard White grade and downgrades to feed grades also reported.
Similar quality downgrades for barley were also detected, affecting the proportion of the crop meeting malting grade specification.
New South Wales
Winter crop production in NSW is estimated to reach 11 million tonnes in 2023-24. This estimate is five per cent below the 10-year average to 2022-23 and 29 per cent below the near-record production of last year.
The area planted to winter crops in NSW is estimated to be 5.5 million hectares in 2023-24, similar to the 10-year average to 2022-23 but falling by six per cent compared to last year.
Much of northern NSW experienced persistent unfavourable climatic conditions throughout the winter cropping season, resulting in below average production.
This was outweighed by the overall improvement in crop yields in the central to southern parts of the state, attributed to the average to above average October and November rainfall.
As a result, 2023-24 winter crop production estimates have seen an upwards revision from that forecast in the December 2023 Australian Crop Report.