While it’s not quite panic stations yet for Moama, there is some cause for concern about their prospects of a top-two finish.
Following their most recent loss to Finley, Moama has fallen behind Cobram on the Murray Football League ladder, now sitting in fifth with a 4-3 record.
If all goes to plan, that should be rectified on Saturday when the two sides meet, however the bigger issue remains the points dropped to Mulwala and Congupna.
The Murray league premiership is almost exclusively won by a team that finishes inside the top two positions on the ladder.
In fact, you would have to go all the way back to 2010 to find a team that won without the second chance, when it was Moama itself that defied the odds to win the flag from third place.
As things stand currently, if the Magpies are to taste the ultimate success, they may have to do it the hard way again, having given up a lot of ground to their fellow contenders early.
Mulwala looks in great touch and will be hard to beat down the stretch as they chase back-to-back flags, having not yet dropped a game at the top of the ladder. Congupna is level with the Lions on seven wins, although have not yet had their bye, and sit second.
Moama sits three wins behind both teams, and first place on the ladder already seems out of the equation. It would be miraculous if Mulwala lost three games more than the Magpies in the back half of the year.
Second place is looking out of reach too.
After The Road has its bye this weekend, Moama will be two games behind if the side manages to beat Cobram. Congupna then plays Mulwala in round 11, another possible chance for Moama to pull back a game.
After that, it seems hard to find a round where any more ground could be made up.
And that is before considering Moama also has to play Mulwala again in round 20, while the Magpies won’t actually meet The Road again in the home-and-away season.
Unexpected losses happen. Take Moama against Finley last week as a prime example.
But the Magpies seem behind the eight-ball already without half the season even being played.
Tongala’s season last year is the cautionary tale.
The Blues lost three consecutive games between round nine and round 11 last year, but apart from the mid-season lapse, looked unstoppable.
But Mulwala and Cobram were strong too, and finished equal on points with Tongala, although had stronger percentages, forcing the Blues into third spot on the ladder.
Without the double chance, Tongala had to go the long way, and although the team comfortably accounted for Deniliquin in week one, an uncharacteristic performance against Moama in the second week ended its campaign.
Moama finds itself in danger of suffering the same fate this year.
Finishing anywhere outside the top two spots heading into the finals opens a side up to countless more variables. An off day, like Tongala had last year, is punished much more severely when you finish third. You have to be flawless for four weeks.
If you finish first or second and have an off day, there’s always next week. You only need to win one of two guaranteed finals games and you will be playing off for the ultimate prize.
Moama coach Sam Sheldon quipped that “compound interest, it always piles the pressure on”, following the loss to Finley, and there is no doubt that each game from here on out will be a big occasion for the side.
But the alarm bells won’t necessarily be ringing at Moama Recreation Reserve.
While pointing out that finishing inside the top two has historically been a crucial step on the way to the flag, the Magpies should not be discounted from the race by any means.
It will of course make it harder if they are to finish without a double chance, but the simple fact is that Moama is still a really strong side capable of winning the premiership.
They were in winning positions against the top two sides in the league, and truth be told, probably should have won both of those games.
Their first half last week against Finley was poor, and if you kick 3.18 for the match you probably don’t deserve to win, but they dominated every aspect of the second half except the scoreboard.
Their wayward aim in front of goal has become something of a worrying trend this year, but if inaccuracy is their biggest problem at the minute, the competition should be on notice when they iron out their goalkicking woes.
They might be on the back foot in terms of ladder position, but the biggest advantage Moama has is that there is still plenty of football to be played between now and September.
There is no doubt they will feature in finals action, and after tipping them for the premiership at the start of the season, I am still backing them to be there on the last weekend.