National year-to-date milk production is currently sitting 0.7 per cent higher compared to 2019-20, according to the latest Rural Bank outlook.
Average to below average rainfall prevailed in April across much of southern Australia, with the improved winter rainfall outlook showing a 60 to 75 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall across most dairying regions.
“While a wet winter can present its own problems, most within the industry will take it as a positive, especially if it means good levels of soil moisture ahead of spring,” the update said.
“South-west Victoria has experienced a drier spell compared to other dairying regions over the past three months. Latest figures show milk supply for the region declined by 8.2 per cent in March.”
It comes as global dairy prices remain stuck in a pattern of plateau which began in April.
“Northern Hemisphere supply has increased in the past month which has put pressure on cheddar prices. Cheddar prices decreased by 3.3 per cent at the first auction of May, while skim milk powder prices increased by 2.4 per cent driven by a smaller offering,” the update said.
According to the report the supply of cheddar is likely to increase in May driven by supply from Europe keeping downward pressure on prices.
In contrast, supply of skim milk powder is expected to tail off as buying activity retreats for winter, with prices likely to remain flat.
Year to date production
NSWVICQLDSAWATASAUSTRALIA2018/2019849,3984,481,797278,311385,860287,097728,5547,011,0172019/2020808,1214,428,533245,574374,167275,887759,1256,891,4062020/2021824,4124,446,429237,313383,584273,482772,3066,937,526% change 20/21 & 19/202.0%0.4%-3.4%2.5%-0.9%1.7%0.7%